作者
Rajesh Gupta, Hamidreza Asgari, Ghazaleh Azimi, Alireza Rahimi, Xia Jin
发表日期
2021/12
期刊
Transportation research record
卷号
2675
期号
12
页码范围
1272-1290
出版商
SAGE Publications
简介
This paper presents the results of an analysis focusing on large truck-involved work zone fatal crashes using seven-year crash data in the State of Florida. Decision tree/random forest models were applied to specifically detect critical crash patterns that result in a fatality outcome. Because of the imbalanced nature of crash severity data (very low frequency of fatal crashes compared with property damage only or injury), data were treated using random and systematic over-sampling techniques. Marginal effects were addressed using Shapley values to increase model explainability. From a methodological perspective, results showed that the combination of over-sampling techniques with ensemble random forests could significantly improve model performance in predicting fatal crashes (compared with conventional logistic regression models). Primary contributors included pedestrian involvement, lighting conditions …
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