作者
Feng Liu, Xiaowei Nie, Adan Wu, Zebin Zhao, Chunfeng Ma, Lijin Ning, Yajie Zhu, Liangxu Wang, Xuejun Guo, Xin Li
发表日期
2023/8
期刊
Nonlinear Dynamics
卷号
111
期号
16
页码范围
15573-15589
出版商
Springer Netherlands
简介
Assimilating the latest epidemic data can improve the predictions of epidemic dynamics compared with those using only dynamic models. However, capturing the nonlinear spatiotemporal heterogeneity remains challenging. We propose a data assimilation method to simultaneously update the parameters and states with respect to their spatiotemporal variation intervals by (1) developing a susceptible-infected-removed-vaccinated model by considering vaccination strategy and quarantine periods and (2) assimilating real-time epidemic data using an ensemble Kalman filter for daily updates of the state variables and Metropolis–Hastings sampling for weekly parameter estimation. Synthetic experiments and a WebGIS-based global prediction system demonstrate the sufficient nowcasting accuracy of this method. An analysis of the system outcomes shows that modeling vaccination details, embedding reasonable …
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