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Estimates of consumers’ discount rates are required by utilities and regulatory agencies to forecast the market penetration of household energy technologies and to evaluate the potential impact of conservation programs. To predict penetration rates, the life cycle cost of each available technology is calculated from projections of capital and operating costs, using consumers’ discount rates to translate future costs into current equivalents. For conservation programs, consumers are assumed to invest in energy-saving measures (eg, insulation) that offer rates of return in excess of their discount rates; with estimates of discount rates, levels of conservation investments are predicted.

Given the central importance of consumers’ discount rates in these calculations, it is not surprising that a considerable body of literature has arisen estimating these rates. Unfortunately, most of the relevant studies are circulated as reports …