查看文章

The probability distribution of travel time is the foundation of travel time estimation or modeling travel time variability and reliability. With considering the fact that travel time is distributed in a limited range, we use a truncated distribution to model the distribution of travel time in a signalized road section. Link travel time is decomposed into time-in-motion (the time a vehicle is actually moving) and time-in-queue. Time-in-motion is modeled using a truncated distribution, while time-in-queue is modeled as a mixed distribution consisting of a mass distribution and a uniform distribution. A probability density function for travel time is then derived and parameterized by fraction of queuing vehicles, red signal time, and motion behavior parameters including truncation points. These parameters are obtained from sample link travel times using a maximum likelihood estimator. In the experiment, a four-intersection network is …