作者
Yi Wang, Ning Zhang, Yushi Tan, Tao Hong, Daniel S Kirschen, Chongqing Kang
发表日期
2019
期刊
IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid
卷号
10
期号
4
页码范围
3664 - 3674
出版商
IEEE
简介
Probabilistic load forecasts provide comprehensive information about future load uncertainties. In recent years, many methodologies and techniques have been proposed for probabilistic load forecasting. Forecast combination, a widely recognized best practice in point forecasting literature, has never been formally adopted to combine probabilistic load forecasts. This paper proposes a constrained quantile regression averaging (CQRA) method to create an improved ensemble from several individual probabilistic forecasts. We formulate the CQRA parameter estimation problem as a linear program with the objective of minimizing the pinball loss and the constraints that the parameters are nonnegative and summing up to one. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method using two publicly available datasets, the ISO New England data and Irish smart meter data. Comparing with the best individual …
引用总数
20182019202020212022202320247344637423022
学术搜索中的文章
Y Wang, N Zhang, Y Tan, T Hong, DS Kirschen… - IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 2018