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Compared to younger adults, older adults are at greater risk for root caries. A model of root caries may assist dentists in predicting disease outcomes. OBJECTIVES: Using the Iowa 65+ Oral Health Survey, analysis was done to model the patterns of the root caries development in older adults.

Methods:

The statistical analysis included Markov chain modeling, model estimation and validation.

Results:

The model effectively predicts root caries using an 18-month predictive cycle and is validated up to 36 months (two cycles), with no significant differences (Chi-square test p-values> 0.1) between predicted and observed distributions. However, we do not have observed data for validation beyond 36 months since the model was designed to perform only at single or multiple 18-month cycles. As expected, the predicted distribution at 54-month (3 cycles) and the observed distribution at 60-month differed significantly (p< 0 …