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CARL WAGNER ALLOCATION, LEHRER MODELS, AND THE CONSENSUS OF PROBABILITIES 1. ALLOCATION PROBLEMS Rational choice often involves the assignment of values to numerical decision variables. In some cases the most appropriate values of these variables are obvious and one can move with dispatch to apply an appropriate optimization algorithm and identify an optimal choice or set of choices. In general, however, the determination of such values is a difficult task. Typically, individuals are required to make subjective estimates of probabilities and utilities or other predictions of future outcomes. The experience and sophistication required to quantify the relevant aspects of a decision problem thus often call for the expertise of more than one individual. But the strategy of decision-making by groups raises a further problem: What is to be done if the experts disagree? Suppose that a group of n …