作者
Yuruixian Zhang, Wei Chong Choo, Yuhanis Abdul Aziz, Choy Leong Yee, Cheong Kin Wan, Jen Sim Ho
发表日期
2022/6/23
期刊
Journal of Risk and Financial Management
卷号
15
期号
7
页码范围
279
出版商
MDPI
简介
Even though both symmetric and asymmetric conceptions of news impacts are well-established in the disciplines of economics and financial markets, the effects of combining multiple news shocks on the volatility of tourism demand have not yet been delved into or gauged in any tourist destination. This work hypothesises and verifies that the news impact curve (NIC), conditional heteroscedastic volatility models, and multiple news shocks are suitable for forecasting the volatility of the Malaysian tourist industry. Among them, three primarily volatility models (GARCH, EGARCH, and GJRGARCH) are used in conjunction with five financial news shocks (FFNSs), namely the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI), the United States Dollar Index (DXY), the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges (S&P500), Crude Oil (CO), and Gold Price (GP). Among the most significant findings of this study are the demonstration of monthly seasonality using conditional mean equations, asymmetry effects in EGARCH-FFNSs, and GJRGARCH-FFNSs models in conditional variance equations and 50 NICs, and the GARCH-FFNSs model’s evaluation of the persistence influence of news shocks on monthly visitor arrivals in Malaysia. The GJRGARCH-FFNSs model is the best model for Malaysian tourism demand volatility forecasting accuracy. Furthermore, KLCI and Gold Price have the most substantial impact on the number of tourists to Malaysia. In addition, it should be emphasised that the methodological framework utilised in this study can be a useful tool for creating and forecasting the performance of symmetry and asymmetry impacts on …
引用总数
学术搜索中的文章
Y Zhang, WC Choo, Y Abdul Aziz, CL Yee, CK Wan… - Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 2022