作者
William Samuelson
发表日期
2001/6/22
期刊
Essays on Saving, Bequests, Altruism, and Life-cycle Planning
页码范围
335
出版商
MIT Press
简介
The assumption of rational choice is a cornerstone of modern economic theory. Rational choice requires that individuals correctly value their present and future resources, that they make consistent decisions, and that they obey the axiom of revealed preference. This chapter presents the results of an experimental study of consumption in which subjects were asked to make consumption decisions under hypothetical economic conditions. The questions in the experiment are designed to test the assumption of rational choice and to elicit information about preferences. The subjects' responses suggest a widespread inability to make coherent and consistent consumption decisions. Errors in consumption decision-making appear to be substantial and, in many cases, systematic. In addition, the experiment's data strongly reject the standard life-cycle model of consumption choice.
The principal specific findings of the laboratory experiment are as follows:(a) Subjects displayed significant inconsistencies in their consumption decisions; each of the subjects, in at least two pairs of economically identical situations, chose consumption values that differed by 20 percent or more. From the perspective of the standard life-cycle model, error in decision-making accounts, on average, for roughly half of the variation in individual consumption choices.(b) A sizeable fraction of subjects valued discounted future earnings less than present assets.(c) Almost all subjects exhibited oversaving behavior, apparently because they underestimated the power of compound interest.(d) The hypotheses that intertemporal consumption preferences are either homothetic or uniform …
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W Samuelson - Essays on Saving, Bequests, Altruism, and Life-cycle …, 2001