查看文章

We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS‐COAST (Coastal One‐line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect‐based, one‐line model that predicts short‐term and long‐term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process‐based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross‐shore transport by waves and sea level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long‐term predictions. We apply CoSMoS‐COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river …