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In the United States, the burden of human papillomavirus (HPV)‐associated cancers varies by racial/ethnic group. HPV vaccination may provide opportunities for primary prevention of these cancers. Herein, the authors projected changes in HPV‐associated cancer burden among racial/ethnic groups under various coverage assumptions with the available first‐generation and second‐generation HPV vaccines to evaluate changes in racial/ethnic disparities.

Cancer‐specific mathematical models simulated the burden of 6 HPV‐associated cancers. Model parameters, informed using national registries and epidemiological studies, reflected sex‐specific, age‐specific, and racial/ethnic‐specific heterogeneities in HPV type distribution, cancer incidence, stage of disease at detection, and mortality. Model outcomes included the cumulative lifetime risks of developing and dying of 6 HPV …