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Wheat yields in Mexico, which represent an important measure of breeding and management progress in developing world wheat production, have increased by 25% over the past two decades. Using a combination of mechanistic and statistical models, we show that much of this increase can be attributed to climatic trends in Northwest states, in particular cooling of growing season nighttime temperatures. This finding suggests that short-term prospects for yield progress are smaller than suggested by recent yield increases, and that future gains will require an intensification of research and extension efforts aimed at raising wheat yields.