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The importance of quantifying the contribution of historical processes in shaping current biodiversity patterns is now recognized, but quantitative approaches that explicitly link speciation, extinction and dispersal processes to palaeo‐environmental changes are currently lacking. Here, we propose a spatial diversification model of lineages through time (SPLIT) based on the reconstruction of palaeo‐environments. We illustrate our approach using mangroves as a case study and evaluate whether habitat changes caused by plate tectonics explain the current biodiversity patterns of this group.

The SPLIT model allows one to simulate the evolutionary dynamics of species ranges by spatially linking speciation, extinction and dispersal processes to habitat changes over geological time periods. The SPLIT model provides a mechanistic expectation of speciation and extinction assuming that species are …