作者
Mateusz Taszarek, John T. Allen, Harold E. Brooks, Natalia Pilguj, Bartosz Czernecki
发表日期
2020/9
期刊
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
页码范围
1-51, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0004.1
简介
Long-term trends in the historical frequency of environments supportive of atmospheric convection are unclear, and only partially follow the expectations of a warming climate. This uncertainty is driven by the lack of unequivocal changes in the ingredients for severe thunderstorms (i.e., conditional instability, sufficient low-level moisture, initiation mechanism, and vertical wind shear). ERA5 hybrid-sigma data allow for superior characterization of thermodynamic parameters including convective inhibition, which is very sensitive to the number of levels in the lower troposphere. Using hourly data we demonstrate that long-term decreases in instability and stronger convective inhibition cause a decline in the frequency of thunderstorm environments over the southern United States, particularly during summer. Conversely, increasingly favorable conditions for tornadoes are observed during winter across the Southeast …
学术搜索中的文章
Differing trends in United States and European severe thunderstorm environments in a warming climate
M Taszarek, JT Allen, HE Brooks, N Pilguj, B Czernecki - Bulletin of the American Meteorological society, 2021