作者
Angel N Desai, Moritz UG Kraemer, Sangeeta Bhatia, Anne Cori, Pierre Nouvellet, Mark Herringer, Emily L Cohn, Malwina Carrion, John S Brownstein, Lawrence C Madoff, Britta Lassmann
发表日期
2019/8/1
期刊
Health security
卷号
17
期号
4
页码范围
268-275
出版商
Mary Ann Liebert, Inc., publishers
简介
Infectious disease outbreaks play an important role in global morbidity and mortality. Real-time epidemic forecasting provides an opportunity to predict geographic disease spread as well as case counts to better inform public health interventions when outbreaks occur. Challenges and recent advances in predictive modeling are discussed here. We identified data needs in the areas of epidemic surveillance, mobility, host and environmental susceptibility, pathogen transmissibility, population density, and healthcare capacity. Constraints in standardized case definitions and timely data sharing can limit the precision of predictive models. Resource-limited settings present particular challenges for accurate epidemic forecasting due to the lack of granular data available. Incorporating novel data streams into modeling efforts is an important consideration for the future as technology penetration continues to improve on a …
引用总数
20192020202120222023202412618343127
学术搜索中的文章
AN Desai, MUG Kraemer, S Bhatia, A Cori, P Nouvellet… - Health security, 2019