查看文章

The 2022 global outbreak of mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) spread primarily among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM), with the initial cluster being identified in England in May, 2022. Understanding its epidemiological characteristics and the reasons for its downturn in July, 2022, will help to control future outbreaks.

We collated data for all diagnosed mpox cases (3621) from England from May 1, 2022, to Nov 16, 2022. Data from 75 individuals with mpox allowed estimation of the incubation period, while data from 121 case–contact pairs were used to estimate the serial interval. Six methods, including a structured dynamic compartmental transmission model, were used to estimate the basic reproduction number (R₀). The structured model assumed all male individuals with mpox were GBMSM, who were then stratified into subgroups for those at low risk and …