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Disclosed are probabilistic prediction for a motion of a lane-based surrounding vehicle and a longitudinal control method and apparatus using the same. The method includes obtaining surrounding vehicle information using a sensor, predicting a target lane of the surrounding vehicle based on the obtained surrounding vehicle information, performing future driving trajectory prediction for each target lane based on the surrounding vehicle information, and computing a probability of a collision likelihood based on a target lane and trajectory predictions of the surrounding vehicle in which future uncertainty has been taken into consideration and performing longitudinal control for collision avoidance.