作者
Alvaro Alonso, Bouwe P Krijthe, Thor Aspelund, Katherine A Stepas, Michael J Pencina, Carlee B Moser, Moritz F Sinner, Nona Sotoodehnia, João D Fontes, A Cecile JW Janssens, Richard A Kronmal, Jared W Magnani, Jacqueline C Witteman, Alanna M Chamberlain, Steven A Lubitz, Renate B Schnabel, Sunil K Agarwal, David D McManus, Patrick T Ellinor, Martin G Larson, Gregory L Burke, Lenore J Launer, Albert Hofman, Daniel Levy, John S Gottdiener, Stefan Kääb, David Couper, Tamara B Harris, Elsayed Z Soliman, Bruno HC Stricker, Vilmundur Gudnason, Susan R Heckbert, Emelia J Benjamin
发表日期
2013/3/18
期刊
Journal of the American Heart Association
卷号
2
期号
2
页码范围
e000102
简介
Background
Tools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high‐risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.
Methods and Results
Individual‐level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19% African Americans, 81% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment—Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5‐year predictive model including the variables age, race …
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A Alonso, BP Krijthe, T Aspelund, KA Stepas… - Journal of the American Heart Association, 2013