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In view of the upcoming demographic transition, there is still no clear evidence on how increasing life expectancy will affect future disease burden, especially regarding specific diseases. In our study, we project the future development of Germany’s ten most common non-infectious diseases (arthrosis, coronary heart disease, pulmonary, bronchial and tracheal cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular diseases, dementia, depression, diabetes, dorsal pain and heart failure) in a Markov illness-death model with recovery until 2060.

The disease-specific input data stem from a consistent data set of a major sickness fund covering about four million people, the demographic components from official population statistics. Using six different scenarios concerning an expansion and a compression of morbidity as well as …