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The number of changing pixel rate (NPCR) and the unified averaged changed intensity (UACI) are two most common quantities used to evaluate the strength of image encryption algorithms/ciphers with respect to differential attacks. Conventionally, a high NPCR/UACI score is usually interpreted as a high resistance to differential attacks. However, it is not clear how high NPCR/UACI is such that the image cipher indeed has a high security level. In this paper, we approach this problem by establishing a mathematical model for ideally encrypted images and then derive expectations and variances of NPCR and UACI under this model. Further, these theoretical values are used to form statistical hypothesis NPCR and UACI tests. Critical values of tests are consequently derived and calculated both symbolically and numerically. As a result, the question of whether a given NPCR/UACI score is sufficiently high such that it is not discernible from ideally encrypted images is answered by comparing actual NPCR/UACI scores with corresponding critical values. Experimental results using the NPCR and UACI randomness tests show that many existing image encryption methods are actually not as good as they are purported, although some methods do pass these randomness tests.