作者
Alexandre Khelifa, Laurie A Garrow, Matthew J Higgins, Michael D Meyer
发表日期
2013/6/1
期刊
Journal of infrastructure systems
卷号
19
期号
2
页码范围
138-146
出版商
American Society of Civil Engineers
简介
More than 20% of the bridges in the United States were built more than 50 years ago, at a time in which intense precipitation events were much less common. However, very little work has been done on the use of scour risk-assessment models to assess how climate change increases bridge failure probabilities. This paper develops a risk-assessment framework based on HYRISK, a model developed to assess the probability of a bridge failure due to scour, and illustrates one way in which current engineering risk-assessment models can be used to quantify the additional risks and expected economic losses associated with a changing climate. Application of this framework to all bridges in the United States that carry vehicular traffic over water finds that economic losses due to climate change factors will increase by at least 15% over current losses and that the expected number of annual bridge failures in the United …
引用总数
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学术搜索中的文章
A Khelifa, LA Garrow, MJ Higgins, MD Meyer - Journal of infrastructure systems, 2013