作者
Peng Liu, Yongping Qiu, Juntao Hu, Jiejuan Tong, Jun Zhao, Zhizhong Li
发表日期
2020/1
期刊
Reliability Engineering & System Safety
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Human reliability analysis (HRA) still heavily relies on expert judgments to generate reliability data. There exists a widely recognized need to validate and justify the reliability data obtained from expert judgments. For demonstrating such effort, we provide a template of how we base expert elicitations and empirical studies to derive the multipliers of performance shaping factors (PSFs). We applied two expert judgment techniques—absolute probability judgment (APJ) and ratio magnitude estimation (RME)—to update the PSF multiplier design in Standardized Plant Analysis of Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H). Licensed operators (N = 17) from a nuclear power plant were recruited. It is found that APJ and RME have acceptable inter-rater reliability and convergent validity between them. The multipliers estimated by APJ and RME were compared with those from empirical studies in the human performance …
引用总数
201920202021202220232024110191499
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