作者
Z. B. Zhao, Xin Li, Feng Liu, G. F. Zhu, C. F. Ma, L. X. Wang
发表日期
2020/8/10
期刊
Science of the Total Environment
卷号
729
页码范围
138959
简介
COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019) is globally spreading and the international cooperation is urgently required in joint prevention and control of the epidemic. Using the Maximum-Hasting (MH) parameter estimation method and the modified Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered (SEIR) model, the spread of the epidemic under three intervention scenarios (suppression, mitigation, mildness) is simulated and predicted in South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria, where the epidemic situations are severe. The studies are also conducted in Nigeria, Senegal and Kenya, where the epidemic situations are growing rapidly and the socio-economic are relatively under-developed, resulting in more difficulties in preventing the epidemic. Results indicated that the epidemic can be basically controlled in late April with strict control of scenario one, manifested by the circumstance in the South Africa and Senegal. Under …
引用总数
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