作者
Craig RM McKenzie, Michael J Liersch, Ilan Yaniv
发表日期
2008/11/1
期刊
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
卷号
107
期号
2
页码范围
179-191
出版商
Academic Press
简介
People’s 90% subjective confidence intervals typically contain the true value about 50% of the time, indicating extreme overconfidence. Previous results have been mixed regarding whether experts are as overconfident as novices. Experiment 1 examined interval estimates from information technology (IT) professionals and UC San Diego (UCSD) students about both the IT industry and UCSD. This within-subjects experiment showed that experts and novices were about equally overconfident. Experts reported intervals that had midpoints closer to the true value—which increased hit rate—and that were narrower (i.e., more informative)—which decreased hit rate. The net effect was no change in hit rate and overconfidence. Experiment 2 showed that both experts and novices mistakenly expected experts to be much less overconfident than novices, but they correctly predicted that experts would provide narrower …
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CRM McKenzie, MJ Liersch, I Yaniv - Organizational Behavior and Human Decision …, 2008