作者
Tugrul U Daim, Guillermo Rueda, Hilary Martin, Pisek Gerdsri
发表日期
2006/10/1
期刊
Technological forecasting and social change
卷号
73
期号
8
页码范围
981-1012
出版商
North-Holland
简介
It is rather difficult to forecast emerging technologies as there is no historical data available. In such cases, the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis have provided useful data. This paper presents the forecasts for three emerging technology areas by integrating the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis into well-known technology forecasting tools such as scenario planning, growth curves and analogies. System dynamics is also used to be able to model the dynamic ecosystem of the technologies and their diffusion. Technologies being forecasted are fuel cell, food safety and optical storage technologies. Results from these three applications help us to validate the proposed methods as appropriate tools to forecast emerging technologies.
引用总数
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学术搜索中的文章
TU Daim, G Rueda, H Martin, P Gerdsri - Technological forecasting and social change, 2006