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We propose a technique that uses Monte Carlo simulations with importance sampling and a reduced Stokes model to compute the probability density function of the Q factor and the outage probability for a channel in a long-haul wavelength-division-multiplexed optical-fiber transmission system due to the combination of polarization mode dispersion, polarization dependent loss, and polarization dependent gain. This technique allows us to compute outage probabilities as small as 10/sup -6/ at a fraction of the computational cost required by standard Monte Carlo simulations.