作者
Venky Shankar, John Milton, Fred Mannering
发表日期
1997/11/30
期刊
Accident Analysis & Prevention
卷号
29
期号
6
页码范围
829-837
出版商
Pergamon
简介
This paper presents an empirical inquiry into the applicability of zero-altered counting processes to roadway section accident frequencies. The intent of such a counting process is to distinguish sections of roadway that are truly safe (near zero-accident likelihood) from those that are unsafe but happen to have zero accidents observed during the period of observation (e.g. one year). Traditional applications of Poisson and negative binomial accident frequency models do not account for this distinction and thus can produce biased coefficient estimates because of the preponderance of zero-accident observations. Zero-altered probability processes such as the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) distributions are examined and proposed for accident frequencies by roadway functional class and geographic location. The findings show that the ZIP structure models are promising and …
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