作者
Andrea Staid, Seth D Guikema, Roshanak Nateghi, Steven M Quiring, Michael Z Gao
发表日期
2014/12
期刊
Climatic change
卷号
127
期号
3
页码范围
535-546
出版商
Springer Netherlands
简介
The links between climate change and tropical cyclone behavior are frequently studied but still uncertain. This uncertainty makes planning for climate change a difficult task. Here we focus on one area of climate-related risk: the impact of tropical cyclones on United States power systems, and we evaluate this risk through the simulation of impacts to the power system under 12 plausible scenarios in which climate change may affect tropical cyclone intensity, frequency, and location. We use a sensitivity analysis based approached grounded in the literature rather than directly simulating from specific GCM output due to the high degree of uncertainty in both the climate models and the climate-hurricane relationship. We show how changes in tropical cyclone activity influence extreme wind speeds, probability of power outages, and the proportion of people without power. While climate change and its impacts are often …
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