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Bridges deteriorate due to different causes such as ageing and climatic conditions. As a consequence, repair actions are considered more expensive than maintenance. Therefore, the prediction of maintenance at the bridge network level is particularly complex due to the considerable level of heterogeneity spanning various bridge types and functions. Consequently, in this article an analytical deterioration model called ‘two-step cluster analysis’ is presented and applied to predict the results of a homogeneous data set. This model had been used in different fields including civil engineering but not for superstructure deterioration forecasting. Variables that interfere with the performance of the structure were considered, such as geometry, volume of traffic, among others. The results show that deterioration drop rapidly if repair treatments were not performed. Variations of up to 20.9% at 50 years between the …