作者
Sheikh Taslim Ali, Lin Wang, Eric HY Lau, Xiao-Ke Xu, Zhanwei Du, Ye Wu, Gabriel M Leung, Benjamin J Cowling
发表日期
2020/8/28
期刊
Science
卷号
369
期号
6507
页码范围
1106-1109
出版商
American Association for the Advancement of Science
简介
Studies of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters, including serial interval distributions—i.e., the time between illness onset in successive cases in a transmission chain—and reproduction numbers. By compiling a line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we show that mean serial intervals of COVID-19 shortened substantially from 7.8 to 2.6 days within a month (9 January to 13 February 2020). This change was driven by enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions, particularly case isolation. We also show that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time provides more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers than using conventionally fixed serial interval distributions. These findings could improve our ability to …
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