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Rockfall fragmentation is a very complex phenomenon that is still poorly understood and modelled. Being able to adequately model fragmentation of impacting blocks, including change of shape, size, and energy after breakage, is essential to be able to predict realistic trajectories and design effective mitigation measures. In order to develop an accurate predictive model for rockfall fragmentation, it is necessary to better understand the fragmentation process and its likely outcomes. A novel model was recently proposed by the authors which can predict the survival probability (SP) of brittle spheres upon impact from the statistical distribution of material parameters, obtained by standard quasi-static tests (Brazilian tests and unconfined compression tests). The survival probability is described as a Weibull function whose two parameters (shape parameter -m- and scale parameter - critical kinetic …