作者
Matt J Keeling, Mark EJ Woolhouse, Darren J Shaw, Louise Matthews, Margo Chase-Topping, Dan T Haydon, Stephen J Cornell, Jens Kappey, John Wilesmith, Bryan T Grenfell
发表日期
2001/10/26
期刊
Science
卷号
294
期号
5543
页码范围
813-817
出版商
American Association for the Advancement of Science
简介
Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We developed an individual farm–based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution. We show that the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The other key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess the history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of control strategies, and general implications for disease dynamics in space and time.
引用总数
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