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Most national or regional initiatives aimed at managing biological invasions lack objective protocols for prioritizing invasive species and areas based on likely future dimensions of spread. South Africa has one of the most ambitious national programmes for managing plant invasions in the world. There is, however, no protocol for assessing the likely future spread patterns needed to inform medium‐ to long‐term planning. This paper presents an assessment of the climatic correlates of distribution of 71 important invasive alien plants, and an analysis of the implications of these findings for future invasions in different vegetation types in South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland over the next few decades. We used a variant of climatic envelope models (CEMs) based on the Mahalanobis distance to derive climatic suitability surfaces for each species. CEMs were developed using the first three principal components derived …