作者
Marília R Nepomuceno, Ilya Klimkin, Dmitri A Jdanov, Ainhoa Alustiza‐Galarza, Vladimir M Shkolnikov
发表日期
2022/6
期刊
Population and development review
卷号
48
期号
2
页码范围
279-302
简介
Estimating excess mortality is challenging. The metric depends on the expected mortality level, which can differ based on given choices, such as the method and the time series length used to estimate the baseline. However, these choices are often arbitrary, and are not subject to any sensitivity analysis. We bring to light the importance of carefully choosing the inputs and methods used to estimate excess mortality. Drawing on data from 26 countries, we investigate how sensitive excess mortality is to the choice of the mortality index, the number of years included in the reference period, the method, and the time unit of the death series. We employ two mortality indices, three reference periods, two data time units, and four methods for estimating the baseline. We show that excess mortality estimates can vary substantially when these factors are changed, and that the largest variations stem from the choice of the …
引用总数