作者
Martin B Short, P Jeffrey Brantingham, Andrea L Bertozzi, George E Tita
发表日期
2010/3/2
期刊
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
卷号
107
期号
9
页码范围
3961-3965
出版商
National Academy of Sciences
简介
The mechanisms driving the nucleation, spread, and dissipation of crime hotspots are poorly understood. As a consequence, the ability of law enforcement agencies to use mapped crime patterns to design crime prevention strategies is severely hampered. We also lack robust expectations about how different policing interventions should impact crime. Here we present a mathematical framework based on reaction-diffusion partial differential equations for studying the dynamics of crime hotspots. The system of equations is based on empirical evidence for how offenders move and mix with potential victims or targets. Analysis shows that crime hotspots form when the enhanced risk of repeat crimes diffuses locally, but not so far as to bind distant crime together. Crime hotspots may form as either supercritical or subcritical bifurcations, the latter the result of large spikes in crime that override linearly stable, uniform crime …
引用总数
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学术搜索中的文章
MB Short, PJ Brantingham, AL Bertozzi, GE Tita - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010