作者
Luboš Buzna, Pasquale De Falco, Gabriella Ferruzzi, Shahab Khormali, Daniela Proto, Nazir Refa, Milan Straka, Gijs van der Poel
发表日期
2021/2/1
期刊
Applied Energy
卷号
283
页码范围
116337
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Transportation electrification is a valid option for supporting decarbonization efforts but, at the same time, the growing number of electric vehicles will produce new and unpredictable load conditions for the electrical networks. Accurate electric vehicle load forecasting becomes essential to reduce adverse effects of electric vehicle integration into the grid. In this paper, a methodology dedicated to probabilistic electric vehicle load forecasting for different geographic regions is presented. The hierarchical approach is applied to decompose the problem into sub-problems at low-level regions, which are resolved through standard probabilistic models such as gradient boosted regression trees, quantile regression forests and quantile regression neural networks, coupled with principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the sub-problems. The hierarchical perspective is then finalized to forecast the …
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