作者
Gerardo Chowell, Lisa Sattenspiel, Shweta Bansal, Cécile Viboud
发表日期
2016/9/1
来源
Physics of life reviews
卷号
18
页码范围
66-97
出版商
Elsevier
简介
There is a long tradition of using mathematical models to generate insights into the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and assess the potential impact of different intervention strategies. The increasing use of mathematical models for epidemic forecasting has highlighted the importance of designing reliable models that capture the baseline transmission characteristics of specific pathogens and social contexts. More refined models are needed however, in particular to account for variation in the early growth dynamics of real epidemics and to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms at play. Here, we review recent progress on modeling and characterizing early epidemic growth patterns from infectious disease outbreak data, and survey the types of mathematical formulations that are most useful for capturing a diversity of early epidemic growth profiles, ranging from sub-exponential to exponential …
引用总数
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学术搜索中的文章
G Chowell, L Sattenspiel, S Bansal, C Viboud - Physics of life reviews, 2016