作者
Eui Jung Chang, Eduardo José Araújo Lima, Benjamin Miranda Tabak
发表日期
2004/9/1
期刊
Emerging Markets Review
卷号
5
期号
3
页码范围
295-316
出版商
North-Holland
简介
In this paper we test whether returns for emerging stock markets are predictable. We analyze predictability by means of multivariate variance ratios using heteroscedastic robust bootstrap procedures. Empirical results suggest that emerging equity indices do not resemble a random walk while for developed country indices (US and Japan) we are not able to reject this hypothesis. Furthermore, by employing variable moving average (VMA) and trading range break (TRB) technical trading rules we show that there is some evidence of forecasting power. However, when we take into account trading costs and a buy and hold strategy, only a few rules generate positive excess returns. We check for robustness by analyzing returns from 1559 different trading rules, testing different sub-samples, analyzing returns in bear and bull markets, and also comparing results found for emerging markets to the US and Japan …
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