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The rising demand for ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography with computed tomography (¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT) has led to an increase of thyroid incidentalomas. Current guidelines are restricted in giving options to tailor diagnostics and to suit the individual patient.

We aimed at exploring the extent of potential overdiagnostics by performing a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature on the prevalence, the risk of malignancy (ROM) and the risk of inconclusive FNAC (ROIF) of focal thyroid incidentalomas (FTI) on ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT.

A literature search in MEDLINE, Embase and Web of Science was performed to identify relevant studies.

Studies providing information on the prevalence and/or ROM of FTI on ¹⁸F-FDG PET/CT in patients with no prior history of thyroid disease were selected by two authors independently. Sixty-one studies met the inclusion criteria.

A random effects meta-analysis on prevalence, ROM and ROIF with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) was performed. Heterogeneity and publication bias were tested. Risk of bias was assessed using the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies (QUADAS-2) tool.

Fifty studies were suitable for prevalence analysis. In total, 12,943 FTI were identified in 640,616 patients. The pooled prevalence was 2.22% (95% CI = 1.90% - 2.54%, I² = 99%). 5151 FTI had cyto- or histopathology results available. The pooled ROM was 30.8% (95% CI = 28.1% - 33.4%, I² = 57%). 1308 (83%) of malignant nodules were papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). The pooled ROIF was 20.8% (95% CI …