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As performance-based earthquake engineering (FEMA P-58) becomes more widely adopted in design and risk analysis practice, it is important to understand the degree to which the calculations reflect reality. This article proposes a methodology for evaluating P-58 component-level loss predictions across buildings subjected to given seismic events, which involves ranking P-58 loss predictions according to categorical component damage information recorded on post-earthquake damage surveys. The methodology explicitly incorporates uncertainties in predictions and utilizes a ground shaking benchmark to determine whether P-58 analyses provide more insight into damage than variations in ground shaking between buildings. Two example applications of the methodology are provided, involving nonstructural component data from the 2011 M_w 6.1 Christchurch Earthquake, for which there is negligible variation …