作者
Amrita Prasad, Soumya Roy, Arindam Sarkar, Subhash Chandra Panja, Sankar Narayan Patra
发表日期
2022/1/1
期刊
Advances in Space Research
卷号
69
期号
1
页码范围
798-813
出版商
Pergamon
简介
In the current work we have used the deep learning based long short-term memory model to predict the strength and peak time of solar cycle 25 by employing the monthly smoothed sunspot number data obtained from WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium, Brussels. We have used the stacked LSTM forecasting model to predict the upcoming cycle 25. From our analysis it has been shown that our proposed model is capable of capturing long term dependencies as well as trend within the data. For cycle 20 and 21 the error difference between predicted as well as observed peak value is 2.3 and 0.7 respectively while the peak prediction error is 1.47% and 0.30%. The RMSE of the model for cycle 20 and 21 is 3.97 and 4.34 respectively. For cycle 22, the AE and RE is 4.6 and 2.16% while the RMSE of the model for this case is 4.50. The predicted peak amplitude of solar cycle 23 and 24 from our proposed model …
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