作者
Johanna Zmud, Ipek N Sener, Jason Wagner
发表日期
2016/1/1
期号
PRC 15-49 F
出版商
Texas A&M Transportation Institute
简介
This study provides a glimpse into the not-too-distant future by asking people in the general population how they would respond to the availability of self-driving vehicles, which might be on Texas roadways within a few years. Some elements of the technology are already available in vehicles today. Self-parking, adaptive cruise control, and automated braking are all available currently. In the near future, vehicles might take over driving completely. Transportation planners, researchers, and policy makers have a keen interest in how the market for such vehicles will develop. The big promise is their ability to reduce traffic accidents. The optimistic view is that such vehicles could also create smoother traffic flow and unlock existing capacity on roadways, meaning less road building. This is because intelligent, self-driving vehicles may drive more safely and efficiently than human drivers. If a fleet of self-driving cars could come to people when needed, it would mean less personal car ownership and fewer parking lots. The safety and productivity gains would bring significant economic benefits, but the potential societal benefits will not be achieved unless these vehicles are accepted and used by a critical mass of drivers. Consumer demand and technological development will determine the pace and scale of market development. The advent of self-driving vehicles could be truly transformative, but future acceptance and use are highly uncertain. Car ownership could change—people might own more or fewer vehicles. Residential spatial patterns could change—more people might live farther from or closer to downtown. The number of vehicle miles traveled …
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