作者
Madeline Hui Li Lee, Yee Chee Ser, Ganeshsree Selvachandran, Pham Huy Thong, Le Cuong, Le Hoang Son, Nguyen Trung Tuan, Vassilis C Gerogiannis
发表日期
2022/4/18
期刊
Mathematics
卷号
10
期号
8
页码范围
1329
出版商
MDPI
简介
Production of electricity from the burning of fossil fuels has caused an increase in the emission of greenhouse gases. In the long run, greenhouse gases cause harm to the environment. To reduce these gases, it is important to accurately forecast electricity production, supply and consumption. Forecasting of electricity consumption is, in particular, useful for minimizing problems of overproduction and oversupply of electricity. This research study focuses on forecasting electricity consumption based on time series data using different artificial intelligence and metaheuristic methods. The aim of the study is to determine which model among the artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), least squares support vector machines (LSSVMs) and fuzzy time series (FTS) produces the highest level of accuracy in forecasting electricity consumption. The variables considered in this research include the monthly electricity consumption over the years for different countries. The monthly electricity consumption data for seven countries, namely, Norway, Switzerland, Malaysia, Egypt, Algeria, Bulgaria and Kenya, for 10 years were used in this research. The performance of all of the models was evaluated and compared using error metrics such as the root mean squared error (RMSE), average forecasting error (AFE) and performance parameter (PP). The differences in the results obtained via the different methods are analyzed and discussed, and it is shown that the different models performed better for different countries in different forecasting periods. Overall, it was found that the FTS model performed the best for most of the …
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