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A model-based approach is described to forecast triad periods for commercial buildings, using a multi-staged analysis that takes a number of different data sources into account, with each stage adding more accuracy to the model. In the first stage, a stochastic model is developed to calculate the probability of having a “triad” on a daily and half-hourly basis and to generate an alert to the building manager if a triad is detected. In the second stage, weather data is analysed and included in the model to increase its forecasting accuracy. In the third stage, an ANN forecasting model is developed to predict the power demand of the building at the periods when a “triad” peak is more likely to occur. The stochastic model has been trained on “triad” peak data from 1990 onwards, and validated against the actual UK “triad” dates and times over the period 2014/2015. The ANN forecasting model was trained on electricity …