作者
Adrian Chong, Khee Poh Lam, Matteo Pozzi, Junjing Yang
发表日期
2017/11/1
期刊
Energy and Buildings
卷号
154
页码范围
343-355
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Bayesian calibration as proposed by Kennedy and O’Hagan [22] has been increasingly applied to building energy models due to its ability to account for the discrepancy between observed values and model predictions. However, its application has been limited to calibration using monthly aggregated data because it is computationally inefficient when the dataset is large. This study focuses on improvements to the current implementation of Bayesian calibration to building energy simulation. This is achieved by:(1) using information theory to select a representative subset of the entire dataset for the calibration, and (2) using a more effective Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS), which is an extension of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) to explore the posterior distribution. The calibrated model was assessed by evaluating both accuracy and convergence. Application of the …
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