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This paper describes the application of Markov chain technique in estimating bridge service life. The change of bridge conditions is a stochastic process and, therefore, the service life of bridges is related to the probabilities of condition transitions. A bridge service life prediction model, using the Markov chain, was developed to reflect the stochastic nature of bridge condition and service life. The paper includes a discussion on the concept of Markov chain, the development and application of the service life prediction model using the Markov chain, and the comparison of service life predictions by statistical and Markov chain approaches.

The service life of a bridge is one of the most important factors for bridge managers to estimate or predict. This paper presents a bridge service life prediction model using Markov chain. The model was developed as a continuation of the earlier work on bridge performance analysis (J). The earlier paper involved the use of M! lrkov ch; iin in nP. VP. loninP hrinPP.