查看文章

The war in the Ukraine has led to a surge in global food prices (Arezki 2022) that threatens to push millions into poverty. This column presents estimates of the impact that the conflict-induced surge in wheat and corn prices is likely to have on low and lower middle-income countries. To this end, we use the Household Impacts of Tariffs (HIT) database and a new toolkit specifically designed for simulating the poverty and inequality impacts of the Ukraine war on low-income countries (Artuc et al. 2021, 2022). The HIT dataset contains household survey data from 53 low-and lower-middle-income countries, representing 1.6 billion people. The toolkit (which is available for download) has been specifically designed for the purpose of modelling the welfare impacts of food price inflation. 1