作者
Angela E Kitali, Emmanuel Kidando, Thobias Sando, Ren Moses, Eren Erman Ozguven
发表日期
2017
期刊
Transportation Research Record
卷号
2659
期号
1
页码范围
155-163
出版商
SAGE Publications
简介
Reliable prediction accuracy is an essential attribute for crash prediction models. Generally, more severe injury outcomes, such as fatalities, are rarer than less severe crashes, such as property damage only or minor injury crashes. The complementary log–log (cloglog) model, commonly used in epidemiological research, is known for its accuracy in predicting rare events. This study implemented the cloglog model in analyzing pedestrian injury severity and compared its performance with the two conventional models used in injury severity research: the probit and logit models. The three models were developed with data from 1,397 crashes involving aging pedestrians that occurred in Florida from 2009 through 2013. The response variable, injury severity level, was binary and categorized as either fatal or severe injury or minor or no injury. The study used three accuracy metrics (deviance information criteria …
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