作者
Lewis M Fulton, Michael A Replogle, Rosaria M Berliner
发表日期
2014
期刊
Institute for Transportation & Development Policy and University of California, USA
页码范围
6
简介
This paper summarizes a modeling project to evaluate a plausible “High Shift”(HS) scenario, and a “High Shift Cycling”(HSC) scenario, in which investment and policy around the world shifts toward favoring urban passenger travel by public transport, non-motorized modes, and low-power electric vehicles rather than gasoline cars. Using an urban model based on the International Energy Agency’s Mobility Model this scenario is compared to a baseline projection in which rapid growth of private motor vehicle use continues to 2050. In HS, global 2050 urban light-duty vehicle (LDV) travel is cut by half; in non-OECD countries this travel is fully replaced by increased use of public transport and non-motorized modes, while in OECD countries person-kilometers of travel drop due to more compact land use, telecommuting, and changing lifestyles. This leads to near convergence of per capita urban person-kilometers between OECD and non-OECD regions. Compared to the baseline, the HS scenario by 2050 would cut urban passenger transport CO2 emissions by 43 percent, from 4.9 GT to 2.8 GT and trim cumulative 2010-2050 costs of vehicle purchase, fuel and operations and transport infrastructure construction, operations and maintenance by US $113 trillion or 22 percent. In the HSC, the increased role of cycling (22% global urban trip share for cycling and e-biking by 2050) results in an additional 6 percentage points of CO2 reduction, or nearly 50% overall compared to the BAU. The HS and HSC scenarios would dramatically boost mobility for low-and middle-income people worldwide, providing more equitable access to jobs, education, and …
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