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Condition assessment in the Swiss bridge management system (KUBA-MS) is performed on the element level. Five condition states are defined based on visual appearance. In order to forecast the condition states of any given element at any given time a relationship must be established between the element age and its condition state. This relationship, which describes the condition evolution, can be obtained empirically from statistical analysis of pairs of consecutive condition assessments (inspections). Markov chains are used in KUBA-MS to represent condition evolution and the transition probabilities are determined using regression analysis of pairs of inspections. Unfortunately there are almost no inspection data for the worst and second worst condition states. The forecasts made using Markov chains are therefore not always reliable. In this paper an alternative approach is suggested, which takes into …